NBA Play-In Tournament: A Clash of Revenge and Record Seekers

The NBA’s most intense phase of the year kicks off with two high-stakes play-in matchups. The Phoenix Suns will face the Portland Trail Blazers, and the Charlotte Hornets will host the Miami Heat. These «do-or-die» games determine who continues their playoff dreams and who heads into the offseason.

Eight teams are vying for the final four playoff spots. On Sunday night, the younger Hornets and the veteran Heat will battle to see who advances to face either the Orlando Magic or Philadelphia 76ers in another elimination game.

The winner of the Suns-Trail Blazers game not only secures an immediate playoff berth as the seventh seed in the Western Conference but also earns a first-round matchup against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.

Charlotte Hornets (E9) vs. Miami Heat (E10): The Road to the Play-In

The Hornets enter the tournament with significant momentum. Their ninth-place finish in the Eastern Conference standings, despite early-season struggles and close losses, belies their impressive performance since the calendar turned to 2026. Under Charles Lee, the Hornets boast a remarkable 33-16 record and a net rating of 10.5, ranking them first in the NBA during that span.

They’ve secured 17 wins in their last 21 games, capping off the regular season with a victory over a depleted New York Knicks squad. In a fascinating subplot, LaMelo Ball and rookie sensation Kon Knueppel battled for the league’s best three-point shooter title. Knueppel, a ROTY candidate and rookie record-breaker, narrowly edged out Ball by one three-pointer made, with 273 successful shots from downtown. This marks only the second time in league history that a teammate duo has led the league in threes made, following Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

The Heat, on the other hand, started the season strong offensively, surprising opponents with an innovative strategy. While they never fell below .500, they hovered just above it for much of the season, experiencing streaks of seven consecutive wins followed by five losses in March. They concluded the season with back-to-back wins against Washington and Atlanta.

Norman Powell showcased All-Star caliber play early on but couldn’t sustain that level. Tyler Herro battled injuries, playing in only 33 games. Bam Adebayo had a strong season, even exploding for an 83-point game, making NBA history as the second-highest scorer in a single game.

Three-Pointers Galore: How the Hornets Can Win

It’s tempting to oversimplify the Hornets’ game by focusing solely on their three-point shooting, but it’s undeniable that no team is more successful from beyond the arc. Charlotte doesn’t just fire away aimlessly; they consistently seek the best shot, even if it sometimes means a one-legged three from LaMelo Ball.

The Hornets not only attempt the second-most three-pointers per game but also rank second in three-point shooting percentage. This potent attack is fueled not only by Ball and Knueppel but also by Coby White, a crucial acquisition during the trade deadline that was perhaps overshadowed. White, acquired from the Bulls, plays nearly ten minutes less in Charlotte than he did in Chicago, but he expertly and efficiently leads the Hornets’ bench. He’s posting career-best shooting percentages from the field and beyond the arc during his time with Charlotte.

Experience and Bam’s Dominance: How the Heat Can Win

While the Hornets are often described as young, their starting five is complemented by seasoned veterans on the bench who have extensive NBA experience. However, no team is as familiar with the play-in format as the Heat. Miami is aiming to make it to the playoffs through the play-in for the fourth consecutive year, a feat they’ve accomplished in the previous three.

Relying solely on their past success and hoping the home-court Hornets falter under pressure won’t be enough. The Heat’s strategy must center on their star power. With Adebayo, Erik Spoelstra’s team likely possesses the best all-around player on the court. Defensively, Bam will need to guard on the perimeter, and offensively, while an 83-point performance isn’t expected, he needs to demonstrate that Charlotte’s big men cannot stop him.

This also extends to rebounding. Miami is the taller team and ranks among the top ten in defensive rebounding. Maintaining this dominance is crucial to prevent Charlotte from getting too many second-chance opportunities and easy looks.

Hornets vs. Heat: The Prediction

SPOX Prediction: Charlotte wins in 1

The Hornets enter this game with confidence and the home-court advantage. Charlotte’s passionate home crowd will undoubtedly fuel their performance, making it difficult for the Heat to keep pace. Miami’s lack of offensive firepower and defensive struggles against Charlotte’s sharpshooters will likely lead to an early summer vacation for the Heat.

Phoenix Suns (W7) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (W8): The Road to the Play-In

Following the «era» of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, Phoenix was left with only Devin Booker after a significant summer overhaul. Few expected much from the Suns in the desert, but they exceeded expectations under new Head Coach Jordan Ott. Ott has instilled a cultural shift in Phoenix. While the roster’s talent may still appear modest compared to other playoff teams and even some teams below them, the Suns consistently play hard, with effort, and with a clear identity.

After an opening-night win, they suffered four consecutive losses. However, they never lost more than two games in a row until March. The Suns acknowledged their limitations but consistently handled their mandatory assignments. Even when injuries struck in the spring, the team rallied and remained closer to a direct playoff spot than the lottery. They ultimately secured a solid seventh-place finish, giving them a strong chance to still reach the postseason.

While the Suns enjoyed a rare period of stability at the start of the season, Portland experienced a turbulent beginning. At the end of October, Head Coach Chauncey Billups was arrested in a betting scandal and was replaced by Tiago Splitter.

The former Spurs player transformed his team into a respectable, albeit mediocre, unit. The team’s performance was often dependent on Deni Avdija, who emerged as a star. However, when the 25-year-old was sidelined, the team quickly struggled. Twelve wins in their last 15 games ultimately secured them two chances at the playoffs.

Letting Devin Booker Shine: How the Suns Can Win

Devin Booker is the offensive centerpiece for the Suns. The guard will once again face Jrue Holiday, who delivered one of the most bitter moments of his then-young career five years ago. In the Finals between Phoenix and Milwaukee, with the series tied 2-2, Holiday stole the ball from Booker late in Game 5. On the ensuing possession, he delivered a legendary lob to Giannis Antetokounmpo, effectively deciding the game and the series.

Throughout the season, Booker averaged over 26 points per game. However, he has been significantly more efficient in previous years, shooting only 45% from the field and making just one out of every three-point attempts. The Suns’ star needs to find his spots and take the easiest shots possible.

Jalen Green has also been streaky, with even worse shooting percentages. Both have dealt with injury issues but are expected to be rested and healthy. The same applies to Dillon Brooks, who, as usual, will enter this matchup with maximum motivation. The emotional leader and veteran, however, has struggled to find his shooting touch since his injury, averaging around seven fewer points per game than before. If he and Green can consistently score, Booker will have the space he needs.

Gritty and Physical: How the Blazers Can Win

Holiday will need to make life difficult for Booker once again. This should also be the approach for Toumani Camara and the entire Blazers team. Their defense is quick and tenacious, and the Suns are among the smaller teams in the league. Splitter’s squad must be physically present everywhere on the court. Donovan Clingan will be a weapon on the boards.

Offensively, Portland must hope that the Suns’ physical defense is quickly whistled for fouls. Deni Avdija’s scoring is dependent on the referees’ calls. The forward, who leads the league in drives per game, is awarded the third-most free throws in the league (9.2), behind Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. A «playoff line» from the referees early in the play-in would not benefit him, as neither he (31.8 3FG%) nor the rest of the team (34.3 3FG%) can reliably rely on outside shooting.

In addition to Avdija’s usual 25 points, the Blazers, who are stronger defensively, will need more offense to keep pace with Booker and company. Scoot Henderson emerges as a potential wildcard. He made his season debut in February. The third pick of the 2023 draft has flashes of his potential, but he also has games where questionable shot selection and poor shooting combine with numerous wild turnovers.

Suns vs. Blazers: The Prediction

SPOX Prediction: Suns win in 1

The path to the paint for Avdija will be closed off, and the referees’ whistles will be heard less and less frequently. This is unlikely to be a pretty game, and Booker will decide this attritional battle for Phoenix.

NBA: Play-In Matchups at a Glance