Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are set to face off against their arch-rivals, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and their nemesis. The regular season was already filled with intensity and surprises. Can the Spurs pull off another upset in the playoffs against OKC?
This is the Western Conference Finals dream matchup: the Oklahoma City Thunder against the San Antonio Spurs. The number one seed in the West faces the number two seed. The reigning champions host their arguably biggest challenger. For the first time since the 1998 NBA Finals, featuring Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls against the Utah Jazz in MJ’s famous last shot, two teams with at least 62 wins are meeting in a playoff series.
Furthermore, the freshly crowned MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will go head-to-head with Victor Wembanyama, who finished third in the MVP voting. Wemby also faces his personal arch-nemesis, and the Thunder face their personal bogey team.
Here’s a preview of the electrifying duel for a spot in the NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder (W1) — San Antonio Spurs (W2): The Road to the Conference Finals
They arrived, they played, and they dominated. Even after the second round, the Thunder remain undefeated in this year’s playoffs. After sweeping the Phoenix Suns in the first round, the reigning champions also had little trouble with the Los Angeles Lakers, who were without the injured Luka Doncic.
Game 1 was a statement of dominance, winning by 18 points. The second game was won with the same margin, despite OKC trailing at halftime. Game 3 saw a resounding 131-108 victory, before the final stages of Game 4 presented a bit more of a challenge. Ultimately, Head Coach Mark Daigneault’s squad showed strong nerves and completed the sweep in Los Angeles.
Throughout the series, Gilgeous-Alexander was slightly off his usual perfection. Especially in the early games, numerous turnovers plagued him, and he shot less than half of his attempts from the field over the series. It ultimately didn’t matter; the Thunder had too much depth for the Lakers and suffocated the offense centered around the lone superstar LeBron James. The absence of co-star Jalen Williams for all four games was consequently barely felt.
While the Thunder swept the Lakers four times in the regular season, winning by an average of 29.3 points, a different caliber of opponent awaits now. The two teams met five times in the regular season, with San Antonio winning four of those contests.
The Texans also had a relatively smooth path through the first round of the playoffs. The Spurs defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1. In the second round, they faced the Minnesota Timberwolves, who had already shocked the favored Denver Nuggets with Nikola Jokic, and the T-Wolves immediately took the lead in the series opener.
However, the Spurs struck back decisively in Game 2 and took control of the series in Game 3. In Game 4, Wemby lost his composure and elbowed opponent Naz Reid hard. The ‘Alien’ was ejected early, and the Wolves tied the series at 2-2.
In Game 5, Wembanyama was allowed to play again – and how! The Frenchman dominated with 27 points and 17 rebounds in a comfortable 126-97 victory. In the decisive Game 6, he could afford to rest relatively, while the rest of his team put out the lights in a 30-point win.
The ‘Wonder Weapon’ and Drawing Wemby Out: How the Thunder Can Win the Series
It’s no shame to struggle against the Spurs in half-court offense; OKC has also experienced this. Wembanyama is and remains a cheat code, especially near his own basket. Drawing the 2.26-meter man away from the rim must be one of the Thunder’s primary objectives if they don’t want to rely solely on their usual fast-break scoring.
The simple recipe for this is to make three-pointers. In their four regular-season losses, this was not achieved at all, with less than one in every three attempts from downtown going in (32.3% 3FG%). Chet Holmgren will be particularly challenged here.
The big man played well against the Lakers recently, but against Wemby and the Spurs this season, he has often struggled. He averaged just 10.5 points in games against San Antonio this season. The 20% three-point shooting has largely allowed Wembanyama and his teammates to relax. The emotional battle also seemed to be won by Wemby. Fueled by a long-standing (mostly one-sided) rivalry, the Frenchman always pushed himself to the limit, while Chet appeared intimidated and lacking confidence.
On the other hand, Gilgeous-Alexander, with his freshly acquired MVP award, should not lack confidence. However, SGA briefly struggled with double teams against the Lakers. It’s good for him that he can now adjust to this type of defense. It’s bad that the Spurs will likely try to avoid doubling initially, as they have better defenders at the guard positions.
The Canadian’s three-point shot didn’t fall against San Antonio recently either, but that rarely stopped him from scoring. He averaged nearly 30 points this season and will find his way through the mid-range. The question will be who will help him with scoring (aside from a good-day Holmgren).
Jalen Williams couldn’t play in any game against the Lakers but has now reported fit just in time for the opener. If he’s not too rusty, he would immediately provide the necessary support that OKC has hardly needed so far.
This is mainly thanks to Ajay Mitchell, who has emerged as the ‘wonder weapon’ of the postseason. The sophomore averaged 22.5 points against the Lakers and played exceptionally well in the close Game 4. Can the 23-year-old become an absolute wildcard in this series against a better defense? If so, he can initially take over important ball-handling duties from ‘J-Dub’ and let his teammates shine in off-ball scoring until he finds his rhythm.
An Appropriately Angry Wemby and Peak Discipline: How the Spurs Can Win the Series
In many ways, the Spurs are a mirror image of the Thunder. They also have their ‘unicorn’ at center, even a more dominant and otherworldly one. They are a young team that plays with high discipline, offers a deep rotation, and has its strengths in defense. With the super talent Dylan Harper, the ‘playoff discovery’ in the style of Mitchell is also found within their own squad.
Consequently, similar aspects apply to the game plan. Backcourt shooting was doubted for a long time. For several months now, Harper and Stephon Castle’s long-range shots have been falling better. Castle absolutely lit it up in Game 6 against the Wolves (5/7 3FG). Can he maintain his hot shooting hand offensively when he has to shut down the two-time MVP defensively? Meanwhile, backcourt teammate De’Aaron Fox’s ankle is a constant concern.
The playoffs so far have consistently proven that neither the Spurs players nor the coaching staff can be hindered by a lack of experience. San Antonio entered the matchups with excellent preparation and made few easy mistakes. Mistakes that were made were addressed, analyzed, and corrected.
And yet, this is the first Conference Finals for the core of the team facing the reigning champions. Mistakes must be corrected even faster; the Wolves were repeatedly able to go on quick runs. No team was as good at forcing turnovers as OKC in the last round (18.8 OPPTO).
In the end, this applies above all to Wembanyama once again. The Spurs have lost three games in this postseason. In the first, he had to be substituted early due to a concussion. In the second loss, he exhausted himself defensively, recorded a block record, but couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn offensively (11 PTS, 5/17 FG, 0/8 3FG). San Antonio suffered their third defeat after he was ejected in Minnesota.
With him on the court, the Spurs score 118.3 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs and concede only 96.4 points. When Wemby is off the court, these numbers are 112.2 and 105.1. The young Frenchman must keep a cool head and control himself despite possible skirmishes with Messrs. Holmgren, Dort, and Caruso. The MVP award to SGA should also directly spur and motivate him. However, it must remain within a measure where he doesn’t try to prove himself to everyone at once and takes every three-pointer or attempts every block.
Thunder vs. Spurs: The Prediction
SPOX Prediction: OKC in 7
The regular season clearly showed it: the Spurs can trouble the Thunder. The young team coached by Mitch Johnson will also succeed in the playoffs. The series will live up to its promise and deliver many thrilling duels. In the end, however, Oklahoma City is the reigning champion, and San Antonio is still one small step ahead, securing their next trip to the Finals. They will surely meet many more times in the coming years.
NBA: Series Schedule between OKC and the Spurs
| Game | Date | Home | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Tuesday, May 19 (02:30) | OKC | Spurs | |
| Game 2 | Thursday, May 21 (02:30) | OKC | Spurs | |
| Game 3 | Saturday, May 23 (02:30) | Spurs | OKC | |
| Game 4 | Monday, May 25 (02:00) | Spurs | OKC | |
| *Game 5 | Wednesday, May 27 (02:30) | OKC | Spurs | |
| *Game 6 | Friday, May 29 (02:30) | Spurs | OKC | |
| *Game 7 | Sunday, May 31 (02:00) | OKC | Spurs |
*if necessary

