The Orlando Magic squad, featuring the Wagner brothers and Tristan da Silva, embarked on the season with ambitious goals. However, they now face the stark possibility of missing the playoffs entirely. Even if they manage to achieve this minimal objective, their current trajectory is clearly unsustainable.
«We want to win the championship; that’s what we train for,» Moritz Wagner enthusiastically declared before the current NBA season began. His brother Franz echoed this hopeful sentiment, stating, «It’s time to break new ground, not just for this group, but for the entire franchise.»
Even before the season concludes, it’s safe to say that instead of pioneering new territory, the Magic are confronted with not only stagnation but a significant step backward. Their most promising phase of the season has been followed by their deepest crisis. With recurring and persistent problems, a rescue or significant turnaround no longer appears to be in sight.
The bold statements from the Wagner brothers were not mere platitudes or wishful thinking. In the two preceding years, Orlando had been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, but the team had shown continuous development, was plagued by injuries, and had acquired a star in Desmond Bane, who was expected to help them overcome past issues.
And to their credit, when healthy, the Magic can perform as a championship-caliber team on their best days. When their ostensibly strongest lineup—consisting of Jalen Suggs, Bane, Franz, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr.—is on the court together, the Magic boast an impressive Net Rating of +14.
However, this optimal starting five has only been available for 13 games and has logged a mere 126 minutes together on the floor. Role players have also been consistently affected. Moritz Wagner only made his season debut in January, Anthony Black—a breakout player for the Magic this season—is currently sidelined, and Jonathan Isaac, another rotational player, remains out.
The most prominent case, however, is Franz Wagner, who has been able to play in only four of the last 48 games due to his ankle problems (and two premature comebacks). Yet, even without the World and European champion, the Magic recently celebrated their longest winning streak of the season with seven consecutive victories. This impressive run was, however, immediately followed by their longest losing streak: six straight defeats.
Franz Wagner’s Return Still Uncertain
On Tuesday, it was announced that he would resume team practice. However, an exact date for his comeback remains undetermined. In any case, it’s clear that even the 24-year-old’s return will not fundamentally alter the outcome of the season.
The ‘Wagner-Banchero conundrum’ has been widely discussed. Both are individually talented players, but both seem to perform better when the other is not on the court. While Banchero’s post-All-Star break averages of 25.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 5.7 APG, along with his increased aggressiveness in attacking the basket (and drawing free throws), are positive, they also feel somewhat inconsequential in the larger context.
Head Coach Jamahl Mosley has, in recent years, failed to prove that he can implement an offensive system that allows his co-stars to consistently shine together.
Despite European Champion Inspiration, Magic Offense Remains Weak
Reportedly, the head coach aimed to adopt several strategies from DBB coach Alex Mumbru. Playing fast, allowing Wagner to excel in transition, and becoming European champions was Mumbru’s (successful) plan at the EuroBasket. Mosley planned similarly, with an NBA title as the ultimate goal.
And one must concede that the 47-year-old coach did indeed do his homework in this aspect. Last year, his team was consistently at the bottom of all fastbreak statistics, ranking 25th in transition points. This season, the Magic have climbed to 12th, nearing the top 10.
Unfortunately, there is no flow whatsoever in their half-court offense. As the game slows down, Orlando becomes increasingly disorganized. In crunch time, they register a dismal 109 points per 100 possessions. When the game gets serious, every offensive possession becomes a desperate fight for survival. On multiple occasions, the Florida team has failed to score even 20 points in the final quarter.
Three-point shooting also remains an incredibly persistent issue. After a historically poor performance from downtown last season, Desmond Bane was brought in as a designated long-range expert. The new acquisition does shoot a high percentage from deep (38.7% 3FG), although it’s below his career average (40.7% 3FG). More critically, he receives fewer open shots and attempts the fewest threes since his rookie season (5.2 per game), significantly less than his peak (8.6).
Consequently, the forward can hardly elevate the overall shooting percentage of a team that continues to shoot modestly. One could almost sarcastically congratulate Orlando on their ‘improvement.’ In terms of three-point attempts, the team has moved from 23rd to 22nd, and in accuracy, from 30th to 27th. It’s safe to say it couldn’t have gotten much worse.
While Mosley’s squad ranks a respectable 15th in overall Offensive Rating, only two teams with a positive record – the Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors – sit behind them. Neither of these teams are expected to contend for significant success in a potential postseason.
Orlando’s Defense Is No Longer Its Cornerstone
Nevertheless, any Magic fan would have readily accepted such statistics before the season began. After all, achieving even mediocrity represents a significant leap from the catastrophic previous years, and defense has historically been the cornerstone that carried the team into the playoffs.
And at this point, the past tense is crucial. Defense *was* their cornerstone. With all the adjustments made to the offensive side of the ball, their defense has suffered. Just last year, Orlando boasted the league’s second-best defense, trailing only the incomparable Thunder defense, who were then defending champions.
This year, much like their offense, their defense has regressed to mediocrity. A Defensive Rating of 114.7 places them 15th in the NBA—the very definition of average. The high pace of play often forces Orlando into shootouts, where they frequently come up short.
In their formidable defensive season just a year prior, the Magic allowed opponents to score over 130 points per 100 possessions in only three games, and over 120 points in eight games. This season, opponents have already surpassed the 130-point mark seven times and the 120-point mark 22 times.
‘We Need to Show It’: Orlando Appears Unmotivated in the Stretch Run
Recently, James Harden and Donovan Mitchell were able to dominate at will, with the Cleveland Cavaliers putting up a combined 136 points against Orlando. This, however, was against a depleted Magic squad playing the second game of a back-to-back.
However, there were fewer excuses for their performance the night before. The Indiana Pacers scored 128 points. The very same Pacers who have struggled to make shots all year, had previously lost 16 consecutive games, and are considered the worst team in the NBA this season.
A mere 14 fastbreak points from the Pacers in the first quarter signaled the start of the embarrassment. It was emblematic of all the defensive deficiencies that have been ‘on display’ for months: sleepy transition defense, missed closeouts, poor matchups, and a lack of intensity. In the game against the Los Angeles Lakers, miscommunication and ‘interesting’ timeouts led to a painful last-second loss. All incredibly unnecessary.
«This is precisely the time of year when you should have the utmost motivation. Where you fight for every possession and every single play should be meticulously thought out. I see no reason why we shouldn’t be maximally motivated. But we also have to show it,» Tristan da Silva explained afterward. Insanity.
Magic Must Initiate Change
It almost seems as if the Magic are unaware of the gravity of their situation. Orlando currently holds the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. However, the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat have identical win-loss records and could still overtake them. Mosley’s team faces the possibility of two away games in the Play-In tournament just to qualify for the playoffs.
Should they indeed make it to the postseason, anything less than another first-round exit would be a major surprise given their current form. What a disappointment.
Old problems persist, and new ones continually emerge. The most passion shown by the Magic in recent weeks has been Banchero and Mosley exchanging veiled criticisms in press conferences. Clips frequently circulate on social media showing players seemingly interested in everything but their coach’s words during timeouts.
Perhaps some of them won’t have to listen to Mosley for much longer. This summer will necessitate either a roster overhaul or a change in the coaching staff. If nothing changes, nothing will continue to change – and the second round of the playoffs will remain uncharted territory.
NBA: Eastern Conference Standings
| Rank | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Pistons | 52-19 |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 47-24 |
| 3 | New York Knicks | 48-25 |
| 4 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 45-27 |
| 5 | Toronto Raptors | 40-31 |
| 6 | Atlanta Hawks | 40-32 |
| 7 | Philadelphia 76ers | 39-33 |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 38-34 |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | 38-34 |
| 10 | Miami Heat | 38-34 |
| 11 | Milwaukee Bucks | 29-42 |
| 12 | Chicago Bulls | 29-42 |
| 13 | Brooklyn Nets | 17-55 |
| 14 | Washington Wizards | 16-55 |
| 15 | Indiana Pacers | 16-56 |